French Regional Elections: Le Pen’s Party Underperforms, But Low Turnout Complicates Results

Sunday’s first round of France’s regional elections has produced worse results than expected for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Recent polling had suggested that the party was positioned to win control in the Hauts-de-France region, which includes the centers of Lille, Calais, and Amiens. Incumbent president Xavier Bertrand, of the center-right Les Républicains, finished with a strong 42.1% of the vote. However, National Rally remains the favorite to take the southern region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. RN Candidate Thierry Mariani narrowly led the first round results in the region, which is anchored by Marseille, with 35.9% of the vote. Update: Since this post was first published, the left-wing Greens candidate has exited the race in a move that sets up a competition between the Nationally Rally and the center-right Republicans. This reverses the far-right prospects in the region, greatly reducing the risk that they seize control of the PACA government.

All of this unfolds in the context of remarkably low voter turnout. French voters abstained on Sunday at a rate just above 66% in what marks a historically poor level of participation. Le Pen has already seized on these numbers to muddy the analysis and fend off criticism, calling the results “deformed” and “a civic disaster.” National Rally registered less than half the support it garnered in the 2015 regional elections, but Le Pen insists that the depressed turnout undermines any attempt to take a clear message from the results. True, it’s somewhat hard to square the assertion that the RN is flailing with their overall gains in a range of national polling. Recently, only 49% of French voters indicated they viewed the party as a threat to French democracy, a figure that shows the measured success Le Pen’s public relations blitz has enjoyed. Moreover, despite the obvious setbacks, the party is likely poised to take government in at least one region. This would mark their first time entering control of a regional government—a moment that remains historic and, undoubtedly, a reminder that the tide of enthusiasm for far right politics in France has not necessarily ebbed.

As a parting comment, it is also worth noting the poor showing that Emmanuel Macron’s party made in the first round. En Marche secured just under 11% of the overall vote. With the 2022 election looming, Le Pen is still the most likely challenger to face Macron in the second round for the presidency. All parties will likely be watching to see if the far right struggles to boost turnout next week.